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The 2026 Lowy Poll: Australians' Trust in America Collapses Amid a Pragmatic Pivot Toward China

  • Writer: FOFA
    FOFA
  • 2 days ago
  • 5 min read


According to the latest 2026 polling data from the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, the attitudes of the Australian public toward the world's two major powers—the US and China—have undergone a historic reversal over the past four years. This is primarily reflected in the following areas:


1. A "Precipitous" Drop in Trust in the United States

  • Australian trust in the US to "act responsibly in the world" plummeted from 65% in 2022 to 31% in 2026, marking the lowest point in the 20-year history of the survey.

  • Confidence in the current US president to do the right thing in world affairs stands at a mere 21%, also a historic low.

  • This shift is closely tied to recent US foreign policy. Over 90% of Australians oppose US attempts to control Greenland, and 86% disapprove of the US using tariffs to coerce other nations.



2. A Significant Warming in Perceptions of China and a Substantial Increase in Trust

  • The proportion of Australians expressing trust in China rose from 12% in 2022 to 28% in 2026, narrowing the trust gap between the US and China in the minds of the Australian public to its smallest margin in history.

  • 61% of Australians now view China primarily as an "economic partner" rather than a "security threat," a stark contrast to four years ago when 63% viewed China as a threat.

  • When ranking the importance of relationships, for the first time, 51% of the public believes the Australia-China relationship is more important than the Australia-US relationship, surpassing the 45% who prioritized the US.


3. Core Drivers: Economic Reality and Concerns Over US Unpredictability

  • Although 73% of Australians still acknowledge that the US alliance is vital to national security, the US is increasingly seen as "unpredictable," leading to a drain in allied trust.

  • Meanwhile, China's position as Australia's largest trading partner remains irreplaceable. The public increasingly recognizes that stable economic cooperation with China is a necessary condition for maintaining national prosperity.


The Australian public is undergoing a pragmatic "rebalancing"—still relying on the US for security, but increasingly turning their economic and diplomatic focus toward China. This "economy first, security cautious" mindset reflects the realistic choices of the Australian people amidst intensifying US-China rivalry.



Based on the complete data from the 2026 Lowy Institute Poll, here is a more detailed analysis of the shift in Australian public opinion:


I. Core Data: The Scales Have Tipped

Indicator

2022

2025

2026

Magnitude of Change

Trust in the US to act responsibly

65%

36%

31%

Historic low, halved compared to 2022

Confidence in US President Trump

—

—

21%

Lowest for any US president in 22 years

View China as an economic partner (not a security threat)

~37%

50%

61%

One of the largest sentiment shifts in 20 years

Believe Australia-China relationship is more important than Australia-US

—

43%

51%

Surpassed the US for the first time, up 8 percentage points

Confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping

—

16%

20%

Slight rebound of 4 percentage points

Trust in China

12%

~20%

28%

Trust gap compressed from 53% to 3%

II. The Collapse of Trust in the US: A Policy-Driven "Avalanche"

The precipitous drop from 65% to 31% is not an abstract emotional fluctuation but a strong backlash against specific policies:

  • 91% oppose US attempts to control Greenland.

  • 86% disapprove of the US using tariffs to coerce other countries.

  • 62% oppose mass deportations of undocumented immigrants by the US.


Charles Lyons-Jones, a researcher at the Lowy Institute, noted: "A large number of Australians disagree with many of President Trump's policies." The essence of this dissent is that when a superpower claiming to be an "ally" frequently pursues "America First," imposes tariffs on partners, and makes territorial claims on allied land, the foundation of its credibility among allies begins to crumble. America's loss of soft power wasn't defeated by China; it was consumed by itself.


III. Warming Perceptions of China: Economic Reality Overpowers Security Narratives



61% of Australians view China as an economic partner, whereas four years ago, the numbers were exactly flipped — 63% viewed China as a security threat. This reversal does not stem from "affection" for China, but from pragmatic interest calculations:

  • China is Australia's largest trading partner, purchasing nearly one-third of Australian exports.

  • 77% of Australians believe trade with China should be maintained at "current levels or more."

  • China is Australia's largest source of international students and the second-largest source of inbound tourists.


Chen Hong, Director of the Australian Studies Centre at East China Normal University, analyzed: "The public increasingly realizes that while the US remains a security ally, military commitments cannot replace markets or bring export orders." In the face of "bread and butter" issues, the "China threat" narrative is losing its persuasiveness.


IV. Strategic Dilemma: Relying on the US for Security, China for the Economy


While the shift in public opinion is dramatic, it is not one-sided:

  • 73% still believe the US-Australia alliance is "very or fairly important" to national security.

  • 68% still support the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement.

  • 39% believe China has the most influence in the Pacific region, surpassing Australia's own 33%.


Australians are attempting to walk a tightrope—continuing to rely heavily on the US for security while deeply binding themselves to China economically. However, this balancing act is becoming increasingly difficult: US security commitments appear ever more unreliable under the "America First" policy, while the dividends of economic cooperation with China are too significant to abandon. Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove frankly stated: "Australians are worried about the America led by Trump, but they also have some anxieties about China."



V. Deep Anxiety: A Shift in Social Mindset

The poll also revealed a deeper change—the overall mindset of Australian society is tightening:

  • 53% of respondents said they feel "unsafe" or "very unsafe" in the world, dropping below the lowest record set during the 2020 pandemic.

  • The proportion of respondents who believe cultural diversity is good for the country plummeted from 90% in 2024 to 73%, a 17-percentage-point drop in two years, marking the largest single shift on any social issue in the poll's 22-year history.

  • 55% believe the current level of immigration is too high.

  • 59% are pessimistic about the economic outlook.


This anxiety lays the groundwork for an "inward-looking" trend in foreign policy. A society that feels unsafe is more likely to choose contraction over expansion, a sentiment already reflected in the poll by the rising support for the populist "One Nation" party.


Conclusion: The winds have changed, but the dust has not yet settled...


Original Data Source Links:



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