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Special Strategy Report for Q4 2025 Investment Portfolio

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This is a tailored investment report for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, covering five main pillars: Natural Resources (Gold Mining Stocks), Hong Kong Real Estate, AI ETFs (US-China), Mainland CIPS FinTech Stocks, and Private Equity (focusing on Mainland Talent-driven Enterprises). This report integrates the latest market trends, policy developments, and industry outlooks to provide recommendations and risk warnings.


I. Natural Resources: Gold Mining Stocks — Dually Driven by Geopolitical Hedging and a US Dollar Pullback

Investment Logic:

  • Rising geopolitical risks (tensions in the Middle East, Taiwan Strait) are driving up demand for safe-haven assets.

  • The US Federal Reserve is expected to enter an interest rate-cutting cycle in the second half of 2025, leading to a pullback in the US Dollar Index, which is favorable for gold prices.

  • With stable costs for gold mining companies, a rise in gold prices will directly translate into profit margin expansion.

Recommended Targets:

  • Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (2899.HK): China's largest gold producer with abundant overseas mineral resources. Its gold production saw a 12% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025.

  • Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Limited (1818.HK): Possesses high-purity gold resources, has a relatively low valuation, and offers a stable dividend yield.

  • SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD.US): For those who prefer ETF instruments, this can be used as a tool to track the price of gold.

Risk Warning:

  • Gold prices are highly volatile; setting take-profit and stop-loss points is necessary.

  • Mining companies face pressure from rising environmental protection and labor costs.


II. Real Estate: Hong Kong Real Estate — A Window for Policy Shifts and Valuation Recovery

Investment Logic:

  • The Hong Kong government announced in September 2025 the relaxation of mortgage loan-to-value ratios and the reduction of stamp duty on non-residential properties, indicating that a policy bottom has been reached.

  • US interest rate cuts are leading to a synchronous decline in Hong Kong's interest rates, easing the financing pressure on developers and homebuyers.

  • The valuation of the Hong Kong stock market's real estate sector remains at a historical low, presenting an opportunity for value recovery.

Recommended Targets:

  • Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited (0016.HK): One of Hong Kong's largest property developers, with stable rental income and low financial leverage.

  • Henderson Land Development Company Limited (0012.HK): Has ample land reserves and is poised to benefit from the development of the Northern Metropolis.

  • Link Real Estate Investment Trust (0823.HK): Its retail and car park assets are stable, making it suitable for defensive investors.

Risk Warning:

  • A slower-than-expected economic recovery in mainland China could impact demand for commercial real estate in Hong Kong.

  • Interest rate risks persist if the Federal Reserve's policy shift does not meet expectations.


 

III. AI Industry: US-China AI ETFs — Clear Long-Term Trend, Attractive After Valuation Pullback

Investment Logic:

  • AI applications are entering the implementation phase, with corporate spending on AI continuing to rise.

  • US AI giants (like NVIDIA, Microsoft) still dominate technical standards, while Chinese AI companies (like iFlytek, SenseTime) are catching up quickly with policy support.

  • The AI sector experienced a correction in Q3 2025, providing a mid-to-long-term entry point.

Recommended Targets:

  • Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ.US): Covers leading AI companies in both the US and China, diversifying risk.

  • iShares Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO.US): Focuses on AI + Automation, suitable for those optimistic about the implementation of AI applications.

  • China AI-Themed ETFs (e.g., E Fund CSI AI Theme ETF, Ticker: 159819.SZ): Focuses on A-share AI supply chain and application companies.

Risk Warning:

  • The risk of an AI bubble still exists, with high valuation volatility.

  • Geopolitical risks could affect technological cooperation and supply chains between the US and China.


IV. FinTech: Mainland CIPS Concept Stocks — Accelerated RMB Internationalization, Release of Policy Dividends

Investment Logic:

  • CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) is the core infrastructure for the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB).

  • In 2025, as China expands local currency settlement with BRICS and ASEAN countries, the usage of CIPS has surged.

  • Related IT service providers and participating banks will directly benefit from system expansion and increased transaction volume.

Recommended Targets:

  • Shenzhen Forms Syntron Information Co., Ltd. (300468.SZ): Provides banks with CIPS system integration and message processing services. Its overseas orders grew by 45% year-on-year in Q2 2025.

  • Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co., Ltd. (002987.SZ): Participates in the CIPS system upgrade projects for several state-owned banks and has high technical barriers.

  • Bank of China (601988.SH): One of the main clearing banks for CIPS, with a high proportion of international business.

Risk Warning:

  • The expansion speed of CIPS is subject to geopolitical and regulatory policy influences.

  • Concept stocks have high valuation volatility; attention should be paid to market sentiment.


V. Private Equity: Focusing on Mainland "Talent-driven Enterprises" — An Undervalued Area of Talent-Intensive Companies

Investment Logic:

  • Amid China's economic transformation, talent-intensive enterprises (e.g., in AI applications, EdTech, MedTech) are becoming new growth poles.

  • Valuations in the primary market have pulled back. The number of private investment deals decreased by 18% year-on-year in Q3 2025, but the quality has improved, providing an entry opportunity for long-term capital.

  • Policies encourage the development of "hard tech" and "Specialized, Refined, Unique, and New" enterprises, improving exit channels for PE/VC (STAR Market, Beijing Stock Exchange).

Recommended Strategy:

  • Participate in RMB-denominated funds through QDLP (Qualified Domestic Limited Partner) or Hong Kong private equity platforms.

  • Focus on the following areas:

    • AI + Education: Such as intelligent teaching platforms and vocational retraining systems.

    • Medical AI: Such as medical image recognition and intelligent diagnostics.

    • Enterprise SaaS: Tool-based companies serving the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises.

Risk Warning:

  • Private equity has low liquidity and long investment horizons (5–7 years).

  • Talent-driven enterprises are often in the early stages and have a high failure rate, requiring professional due diligence and management.




Risk Disclaimer

The above statement is intended to disclose potential risks associated with the Q4 2025 investment strategy and does not cover all possible risk scenarios. Before making any decisions, investors should seek independent advice from licensed professionals based on their own circumstances.

Information Sources:

I. Overall Strategy and Quarterly Outlook

  1. Guohai Securities, Q4 2025 Strategy: A Step Further

  2. SPDB International, 2025 Mid-Year Market Strategy Outlook: The Only Constant is Change

  3. HSBC Qianhai, China Equity Strategy 2025 H2 Outlook

II. Real Estate (Hong Kong Residential / REITs)4. China Construction Bank (Asia), Investment Commentary Database (includes comments on Hong Kong property market interest rates and policies)5. KPMG, China Economic Monitor Q3 2025 (includes Hong Kong real estate investment growth and policy outlook)

III. AI and ETF Themes6. Global X AIQ ETF Official Fact Sheet (Holdings, Fees, Performance)7. iShares IRBO ETF Official Page8. E Fund CSI AI Theme ETF (159819.SZ) Prospectus and Quarterly Reports (Search code "159819" on http://www.efunds.com.cn)

IV. CIPS / RMB Internationalization and FinTech9. People's Bank of China, CIPS Official Introduction and Statistics (monthly transaction volume reports available for download at http://www.cips.com.cn)10. Shenzhen Forms Syntron (300468.SZ) 2025 Semi-Annual Report (discloses CIPS-related orders)11. Jing-Jin Electric (002987.SZ) 2025 Semi-Annual Report (explanation of CIPS system upgrade projects)

V. Gold Mining Stocks and Commodities12. Zijin Mining Group Q2 2025 Production Data Announcement (H-shares)13. Zhaojin Mining (1818.HK) 2025 Interim Report14. SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD.US) Daily Holdings and Net Asset Value

VI. Private Equity and QDLP Policy15. Asset Management Association of China (AMAC), QDLP-related Guidelines (updated March 2025)16. EY, Overview of China Outbound Investment of H1 2025 (includes PE/VC outbound and exit data)

VII. Comprehensive Data and Macroeconomics17. Wind Financial Terminal (cited for various growth, valuation, and fund flow data)18. Bloomberg Industry Consensus Estimates (cited for AI, gold mining, and real estate earnings forecasts)




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