2026 Outlook: The US Dollar Stablecoin Offensive and China's Digital Siege — Asset Strategy and Survival Guide in the Web 3.0 Era

Introduction: The Collision of Two Parallel Universes

Standing at the close of 2025 and looking back, the global financial system is undergoing a silent yet violent tectonic shift. On one side, the United States is attempting to "tokenize" dollar hegemony through the GENIUS Act, utilizing stablecoins to absorb massive amounts of national debt. On the other side, China is standing firm on its financial security baseline, erecting a "Digital Siege" to strictly prevent irregular capital outflows.

For investors caught in the middle, this is no longer merely a choice of technical roadmaps, but a fundamental decision regarding asset attributes and compliance pathways. Understanding this interplay is the key to asset preservation and appreciation over the next five years.

The US "Overt Strategy" — Hegemony in the Guise of Crypto

According to market data from December 2025, US Dollar stablecoins (USDT/USDC) have captured 90% of the global payment market share. The US government (specifically the Trump administration's "Crypto Government Team") has completed its strategic pivot from "attacking Bitcoin" to "embracing stablecoins."

Core Logic:

1. A New Interpretation of Debt Monetization: The US is pushing the GENIUS Act, requiring stablecoin issuers to hold 100% reserves in US dollars or US Treasury bonds. This not only consolidates the dollar's pricing power in Web 3.0 but also creates rigid demand worth trillions of dollars for US debt, thereby alleviating the fiscal deficit.

2. A New Tool for Financial Warfare: The borderless nature of stablecoins makes them a potent weapon for penetrating other nations' financial systems and bypassing traditional banking settlements. This is a "Dollar Re-centralization" movement cloaked in the guise of decentralization.

China's "Iron Wall" — RWA and the Red Line of Capital Controls

Faced with the aggressive influx of dollar stablecoins, the attitude of Chinese regulators is exceptionally resolute and clear: a strict ban on decentralized tokens and strict control over cross-border capital flows.

Why does China adopt a "Zero Tolerance" attitude toward RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization?

1. The "Trojan Horse" of Capital Flight: The core of RWA is the tokenization and global circulation of assets such as real estate and equity. In the eyes of regulators, this easily becomes an illegal channel to bypass foreign exchange controls. If liberalized, domestic funds would effectively exit the country by purchasing RWA assets, impacting national financial stability.

2. Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Identity Verification Challenges: The decentralized nature of transactions runs contrary to China's requirement for "look-through supervision" (penetrative supervision). Therefore, China characterizes stablecoins and RWAs as "illegal financial activities" and has issued joint bans across multiple ministries.

The Dual-Track System Under the Standoff — The "China Solution" for Web 3.0

Since the path for public chains and stablecoins has been blocked, where will China's Web 3.0 head? The answer is "Official-Led Digitization."

1. The Absolute Dominance of the Digital Yuan (e-CNY): China will not embrace USDT; instead, it will fully promote the CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). In the future Chinese Web 3.0, the underlying payment tool can only be the Digital Yuan, which possesses legal tender status, traceability, and smart contract capabilities.

2. Consortium Chains and Industrial Blockchain: Stripping away the "coin" attribute while retaining the "chain" technology. The focus is on developing scenarios that serve the real economy, such as supply chain finance, data element circulation, and electronic invoicing. This is a national-level experiment in "Coinless Blockchain."

Practical Guide for Investors — Red Lines and Opportunities

Based on the macro background above, investors must establish a clear "Negative List" and "White List."

[High-Risk Red Lines] (Avoid Absolutely)

• RWA Tokenization of Domestic Assets: Any project claiming to tokenize mainland Chinese real estate or equity for financing is suspected of illegal fundraising and the illegal issuance of securities, and will inevitably be shut down.

• Channel Business Bypassing Forex Controls: Attempts to use stablecoins like USDT to move domestic funds offshore will face risks of frozen bank cards, confiscation of funds, and even criminal liability.

• Domestic ICO/IEO: The Central Bank's "September 24 Notice" of 2021 remains effective, and enforcement has intensified with upgraded technical means.

[Value Depressions] (Key Areas for Layout)

• The Digital Yuan Ecosystem: Focus on infrastructure providers offering payment terminals, smart contract development, and hardware wallet technology for e-CNY. This is the track with the highest policy certainty.

• Compliant Expansion via Hong Kong Structure: If bullish on Web 3.0, look toward Hong Kong. Seek compliant institutions that hold SFC licenses, where the asset side is located entirely offshore, and which strictly block mainland IP addresses. Hong Kong is the only compliant window for Chinese capital's "technical expansion overseas," but the prerequisite is "Fund Segregation."

• Data Element Infrastructure: Platform-type enterprises that utilize blockchain technology for data rights confirmation and trading, in compliance with the "20 Measures on Data," represent the true blue ocean of China's internal "Digital Economy."

  
  

Conclusion: Seeking Alpha in the Cracks

The financial world of 2026 will be increasingly fragmented. On one side is the dollar-dominated, liquidity-flooded "On-Chain Casino"; on the other is the RMB-dominated, orderly "Digital Siege."

For investors, the greatest risk is not missing out, but misalignment—attempting to apply RMB thinking within the dollar's rules of the game, or dreaming dollar dreams within China's regulatory red lines. In China, Web 3.0 is not a subversive financial revolution, but a controlled technical upgrade.

References:

1. People's Bank of China and ten other ministries: Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of the Risks of Hype in Virtual Currency Trading (The "September 24 Notice" of 2021).

2. Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Stablecoin Issuer Regime (Implemented August 1, 2025) and accompanying guidelines.

3. Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Supervisory Policy Manual New Module CRP-1 "Crypto-asset Classification" (Consultation Draft, September 2025), etc.

4. Announcement by the Xianning Public Security Bureau, Hubei Province (December 2025) regarding unclaimed Tether (USDT) in involved cases; UK Court proceedings on the "Qian Zhimin Bitcoin Money Laundering Case."

5. Relevant content from the Supreme People's Court of China's National Criminal Trial Work Conference (November 2025); relevant concepts from the procuratorial system.

6. United States: GENIUS Act.

7. People's Bank of China: Official White Paper and policy guidelines on the research and pilot of the Digital Yuan (e-CNY).