The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds the lifeline of the global economy, and the incoming chair taking on this heavy responsibility may possess personal wealth beyond anyone's imagination. Recently, Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the next Fed Chair, officially submitted his financial disclosure documents. This financial titan, who boasts a Wall Street background and is married to an heiress of the Estée Lauder family, not only possesses sharp investment acumen but has also ventured

Abstract Prediction markets have long been viewed as a gray area between financial markets and gambling. However, with the maturation of blockchain technology and the entry of Wall Street capital, Polymarket has gradually transitioned from a fringe crypto product into an event-driven market with institutional potential. This article evaluates whether Polymarket constitutes a new asset class from four perspectives: its business model, regulatory history, capital structure, and